Michael Terpin Predicts Bitcoin Drop to $43,500
Bitcoin may have already erased half of its market cap, but veteran crypto investor Michael Terpin says the asset still has further to fall before hitting rock bottom. In his recent discussion, Terpin emphasizes that the market has not yet reached the true low point and that additional declines are
Bitcoin may have already erased half of its market cap, but veteran crypto investor Michael Terpin says the asset still has further to fall before hitting rock bottom. In his recent discussion, Terpin emphasizes that the market has not yet reached the true low point and that additional declines are likely ahead for Bitcoin holders and traders alike.
The Defining Hallmarks of a Bitcoin Bottom
Terpin does not believe that markets have experienced true capitulation at this stage. He explains that one of the defining hallmarks of a genuine bottom is that prices do not rebound quickly afterward. According to Terpin, the current situation lacks this characteristic, suggesting more downside remains before stabilization occurs.
Terpin points out that greed is invariably why most traders fail to time market cycles correctly. He references Bitcoin’s previous cycle top in November 2021, when the asset reached around $69,000 before entering an extended consolidation period. At that time, many investors had ample opportunity to exit positions above $60,000, yet widespread optimism led people to anticipate further gains up to $100,000, often highlighted by the popular laser eyes meme in the community.
Terpin himself was not overly confident back then that Bitcoin would reach $100,000. He believed there was a possibility it could climb that high, but he thought the sweet spot would land around $85,000. Ultimately, the asset underperformed those expectations due to challenging macroeconomic conditions that persisted throughout the period.
He notes that the industry has faced two consecutive cycles marked by adverse macro environments. Although expectations were high for positive macroeconomic support following political developments involving Trump, factors such as tariffs and other elements enabled significant market manipulation, which weighed on performance.
Bitcoin ultimately reached $100,000 in December 2024, just a month after Donald Trump won the US presidential election, marking a notable milestone despite the surrounding headwinds.
Terpin's Early Involvement with Ethereum and Other Projects
Terpin was an early investor in the crypto industry and serves as the founder and CEO of blockchain advisory firm Transform Ventures. Through his company, he worked with several projects during their early development stages that went on to become major names in the industry, including Ethereum, Tether, and WAX. He was also an advisor to Mastercoin, the world’s first initial coin offering in 2013, which later became known as Omni Layer.
Terpin claims he was the first crypto investor to relocate to Puerto Rico, which is known for its crypto-friendly tax policies. Since moving there, he has also invested in and helped fund several startups based on the island, contributing to the local ecosystem growth.
Michael Terpin Says Four-Year Cycle Is Not Over
He is convinced that Bitcoin is still following its traditional four-year cycle, despite ongoing industry debate in 2025 suggesting that institutional adoption and the launch of spot ETFs may have altered the market’s usual boom-and-bust pattern. Terpin argues that the halvings continue to play a central role in price movements.
He dismisses arguments that institutions will prevent further declines because they do not sell, calling such views inaccurate since institutions do engage in selling activities when conditions warrant. Terpin is also cautious about companies built around Bitcoin exposure, including Strategy and its executive chairman Michael Saylor’s aggressive Bitcoin accumulation strategy.
Buying Strategy Stock or Bitcoin Directly
While acknowledging Saylor’s success, Terpin says investors should understand the risks of investing in a corporate structure rather than owning the underlying asset directly. Historically, better returns have come from buying Strategy shares at the bottom and selling at the top compared to holding Bitcoin itself. However, he questions whether this approach can be sustained long term, noting that Saylor avoided major losses in 2022 despite being underwater on Bitcoin holdings at one point. Terpin personally prefers to bet on Bitcoin rather than a single company.
Investors seeking a low maintenance approach should also consider betting on Bitcoin rather than chasing altcoins, which require far more active management and attention. Terpin advises that one only needs to review the portfolio a couple of times during the four-year cycle, checking near the bottom for buying opportunities and near the top for selling decisions. The rest of the time can be spent on leisure activities like golf, whereas altcoin positions demand constant monitoring and adjustments.